The Indian voter has rejected the politics of caste, religion and region. Faced with external and internal threats he has voted for stability. But has he voted for a particular party or a particular leader or a particular issue ?
The reality is that India is truly shining. Even the recent urban recession which most people do realise is more a result of external forces beyond the government's control has been taken by people in their stride.
India started to shine under Mr. Vajyapee, SM Krishna and Chandrababu Naidu but only in pockets, in the cities and not in the villages.
A decade of 8pc growth along with smart policy decisions like Higher Prices for Farm Produce, Debt Waivers for Poor Farmers, the NREG scheme which seems to be finally working (Apparently there is a huge shortage of harvest labour in Punjab this year because the Bihari migrants for the first time have jobs in Bihar) and revised pay packages for government employees have finally resulted in the trickle down effect economists used to talk about but was seldom seen in real life. The key learning here is that "trickle down" is not automatic. You need policies and delivery mechanisms to ensure inclusive growth.
Wherever honest and competent governments ensured good governance irrespective of the party, they have been rewarded. Infact one is now tempted to use the election numbers as a proxy for real development in a state more than the development metrics touted around by social scientists.
For the first time the Indian people see hope. Lack of opportunities earlier meant Hindus needed to fight Muslims, OBCs and Dalits the Upper Castes to get their share of a limited pie. A decade of 8pc growth means that there is now enough for everyone.
With this vote the Indian voter has set the stage for 10pc plus growth for the next 10 years. A nation to grow needs security and good governance and for it to be stable it needs inclusive growth.
For the last 20 years now 40pc of the country - UP, Bihar, Orissa, MP, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, North East and Jharkhand has been growing at 5pc even when the rest of the country averaged 8pc. If these states can get to even 8pc growth that will lift the secular rate of growth from the current say 7pc to 8.5pc. Its about time the government fast tracked reforms. Legal Reforms, Improvements in Education and Healthcare, Financial Sector Reforms in areas like Banking, Insurance, Pension Reforms, Labour Reforms, Land Reforms, Improvements in sectors like Agriculture, Power, Roads and Infrastructure, Police Reforms, Urban Renewal Schemes have all been pending for long.
With new reformist policies each of these sectors can add on an average an incremental 0.25pc to GDP growth. 10-11pc growth is now within reach. Good governance is the need of the hour. Dalits, Muslims, the Eastern States dont need tokenism. They need real policy interventions which will educate and uplift their entire lot.
All governments irrespective of party have the opportunity of a lifetime. If they can capitalise on this moment they would have delivered the 750 million Indians who live on less than US $2 a day from poverty forever.
Monday, May 18, 2009
Indian Internet is happening as we speak
People often ask me if the internet will ever happen in India and whether the Mobile Phone is India's internet. When will 200 million Indians get on the internet ? Will internet companies ever make money ?
I have a slightly different viewpoint here. I dont think you need 200 million or even 100 million people on the internet for internet companies to become big and profitable. The total readership of all English newspapers in the country is probably in the 20 million range. A TRP of 4 which is what IPL matches routinely average translates into a viewership of less than 10 million people per match.
What is different however is the following
1) People spend 30-45m per day reading newspapers on the average
2) People spend 3 hrs watching an IPL game
3) Both English newspapers and IPL have a substantial audience base which is 35+. These are the people who have a lot of money read purchasing power
The most conservative estimate of the internet population in this country is 40 million. However the number of people who have access to broadband and spend over 30-45m on the net browsing everyday is probably in the 5-10 million range. 35+ people accessing the internet is increasing steadily but still nowhere close in percentage terms to the people who read newspapers.
So what does all this mean ? With broadband now becoming increasingly ubiquitous, access speeds are improving dramatically. At 256kbps access you can now view 4 times the number of pages you would have been able to view at 64kbps in the same time. Penetration and time spent on the internet in every age group (including the 35+ group) is improving steadily.
The metrics to track are therefore not internet users but
a) Time spent on the internet
b) Average Internet access speed
c) No. of 35+ people on the internet
My view is that all the above metrics will atleast double in the next 2-3 years. Together they will have a multiplier effect on all internet businesses. The internet is exploding as we speak. Its not about getting to 100 or 200 million users. Its about the time spent on the internet.
I have a slightly different viewpoint here. I dont think you need 200 million or even 100 million people on the internet for internet companies to become big and profitable. The total readership of all English newspapers in the country is probably in the 20 million range. A TRP of 4 which is what IPL matches routinely average translates into a viewership of less than 10 million people per match.
What is different however is the following
1) People spend 30-45m per day reading newspapers on the average
2) People spend 3 hrs watching an IPL game
3) Both English newspapers and IPL have a substantial audience base which is 35+. These are the people who have a lot of money read purchasing power
The most conservative estimate of the internet population in this country is 40 million. However the number of people who have access to broadband and spend over 30-45m on the net browsing everyday is probably in the 5-10 million range. 35+ people accessing the internet is increasing steadily but still nowhere close in percentage terms to the people who read newspapers.
So what does all this mean ? With broadband now becoming increasingly ubiquitous, access speeds are improving dramatically. At 256kbps access you can now view 4 times the number of pages you would have been able to view at 64kbps in the same time. Penetration and time spent on the internet in every age group (including the 35+ group) is improving steadily.
The metrics to track are therefore not internet users but
a) Time spent on the internet
b) Average Internet access speed
c) No. of 35+ people on the internet
My view is that all the above metrics will atleast double in the next 2-3 years. Together they will have a multiplier effect on all internet businesses. The internet is exploding as we speak. Its not about getting to 100 or 200 million users. Its about the time spent on the internet.
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Why another blog ?
I must confess I am not into blogs.
Except for the occassional Amitabh Bachhan post or the fakeiplplayer blog off late I dont really end up reading blogs. And so I thought about blogging for a long time but never got around to doing it. Why will anyone want to visit my blog ? There is no shortage of opinions and views out there - why add to the confusion ?
I had the same opinion of books. Everyone seems to write one now a days. A few days ago I met someone who also wants to write one. When I bluntly asked him whether he really thought anyone would want to read it he said he wanted to write one for himself. To clear the thoughts in his mind. To put everything down on a piece of paper.
And so here I am. Not because I want people to know what I think but because I want to clarify thoughts in my own mind. Because I want to know what I feel strong enough about to put it down in writing.
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