Indian Internet is happening as we speak

People often ask me if the internet will ever happen in India and whether the Mobile Phone is India's internet. When will 200 million Indians get on the internet ? Will internet companies ever make money ?

I have a slightly different viewpoint here. I dont think you need 200 million or even 100 million people on the internet for internet companies to become big and profitable. The total readership of all English newspapers in the country is probably in the 20 million range. A TRP of 4 which is what IPL matches routinely average translates into a viewership of less than 10 million people per match.

What is different however is the following
1) People spend 30-45m per day reading newspapers on the average
2) People spend 3 hrs watching an IPL game
3) Both English newspapers and IPL have a substantial audience base which is 35+. These are the people who have a lot of money read purchasing power

The most conservative estimate of the internet population in this country is 40 million. However the number of people who have access to broadband and spend over 30-45m on the net browsing everyday is probably in the 5-10 million range. 35+ people accessing the internet is increasing steadily but still nowhere close in percentage terms to the people who read newspapers.

So what does all this mean ? With broadband now becoming increasingly ubiquitous, access speeds are improving dramatically. At 256kbps access you can now view 4 times the number of pages you would have been able to view at 64kbps in the same time. Penetration and time spent on the internet in every age group (including the 35+ group) is improving steadily.

The metrics to track are therefore not internet users but
a) Time spent on the internet
b) Average Internet access speed
c) No. of 35+ people on the internet

My view is that all the above metrics will atleast double in the next 2-3 years. Together they will have a multiplier effect on all internet businesses. The internet is exploding as we speak. Its not about getting to 100 or 200 million users. Its about the time spent on the internet.