Monday, May 18, 2009

Is this the turning point ?

The Indian voter has rejected the politics of caste, religion and region. Faced with external and internal threats he has voted for stability. But has he voted for a particular party or a particular leader or a particular issue ?


The reality is that India is truly shining. Even the recent urban recession which most people do realise is more a result of external forces beyond the government's control has been taken by people in their stride.

India started to shine under Mr. Vajyapee, SM Krishna and Chandrababu Naidu but only in pockets, in the cities and not in the villages.

A decade of 8pc growth along with smart policy decisions like Higher Prices for Farm Produce, Debt Waivers for Poor Farmers, the NREG scheme which seems to be finally working (Apparently there is a huge shortage of harvest labour in Punjab this year because the Bihari migrants for the first time have jobs in Bihar) and revised pay packages for government employees have finally resulted in the trickle down effect economists used to talk about but was seldom seen in real life. The key learning here is that "trickle down" is not automatic. You need policies and delivery mechanisms to ensure inclusive growth.

Wherever honest and competent governments ensured good governance irrespective of the party, they have been rewarded. Infact one is now tempted to use the election numbers as a proxy for real development in a state more than the development metrics touted around by social scientists.


For the first time the Indian people see hope. Lack of opportunities earlier meant Hindus needed to fight Muslims, OBCs and Dalits the Upper Castes to get their share of a limited pie. A decade of 8pc growth means that there is now enough for everyone.

With this vote the Indian voter has set the stage for 10pc plus growth for the next 10 years. A nation to grow needs security and good governance and for it to be stable it needs inclusive growth.

For the last 20 years now 40pc of the country - UP, Bihar, Orissa, MP, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, North East and Jharkhand has been growing at 5pc even when the rest of the country averaged 8pc. If these states can get to even 8pc growth that will lift the secular rate of growth from the current say 7pc to 8.5pc. Its about time the government fast tracked reforms. Legal Reforms, Improvements in Education and Healthcare, Financial Sector Reforms in areas like Banking, Insurance, Pension Reforms, Labour Reforms, Land Reforms, Improvements in sectors like Agriculture, Power, Roads and Infrastructure, Police Reforms, Urban Renewal Schemes have all been pending for long.

With new reformist policies each of these sectors can add on an average an incremental 0.25pc to GDP growth. 10-11pc growth is now within reach. Good governance is the need of the hour. Dalits, Muslims, the Eastern States dont need tokenism. They need real policy interventions which will educate and uplift their entire lot.

All governments irrespective of party have the opportunity of a lifetime. If they can capitalise on this moment they would have delivered the 750 million Indians who live on less than US $2 a day from poverty forever.

3 comments:

  1. While I agree with the essence of the blog but the 10% growth for the next 10 years seems a little over optimistic.

    Also, one point of conflict is the success of Mamta Banerjee in this election. From what I know she seems far away from good governance and reforms. Her agenda seems to oppose anything & everything that can draw public attention.

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  2. interesting blog , of course implementation is the key and we are very far away from that. we are a country which every once in a while takes 3 steps forward and then 2 steps back wards so we need to see how much of the reforms really happens at the grass roots level.
    mamta banerjee and naveen patnaik's successes are of course exceptions which have no real justification other than the fact that it could be a case of TINA - there is no alternative -

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  3. Great article Sir. Even i rin a blog. If you get time, please visit: http://economicexpress.blogspot.com

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